[2] "American Opinion,"Wall Street Journal,September16,1999,p.A9.
[3] See Joseph Nye,"As China rises,must others bow?"The Economist,June27,1998,p.23.
[4] John Mearsheimer,The Tragedy of Great Power Politics(New York,W.W.Norton,2001),p.4.
[5] Thucydides,History of the Peloponnesian War(London:Penguin,1972),p.62.
[6] Fenby,Will China Dominate the21st Century?p.26.
[7] "Living up to the title,"Beijing Review,May22,2014,p.2;Daniel Gross,"Yes we can still market:Why US brands remain the world's most valuable,"The Daily Beast,June1,2014.
[8] Alexandra Raphel,"American economic power in decline?Rethinking the data in the context of globalization,"Journalist's Resource,February11,2014.
[9] Neil Irwin,"This one number explains how China is taking over the world,"Washington Post.com,December3,2013;"The once and future currency,"The Economist,March8,2014,p.80.
[10] South Reviews editorial,reprinted in Beijing Review,March27,2014,p.10.
[11] Toshiya Tsugami,"The future growth of China and security in East Asia,"paper presented to SPF-CSIS Joint Commission on the US-Japan Alliance,June24,2013.
[12] Sam Roberts,"In2025,India to pass China in population,US estimates,"New York Times,December16,2009.
[13] Richard McGregor,The Party:The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers(New York:Harper Collins,2010),p.30.
[14] James Steinberg and Michael O'Hanlon,Strategic Reassurance and Resolve:US-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century(Princeton:Princeton University Press,2014),pp.93,184.
[15] Evan Braden Montgomery,"Contested primacy in the Western Pacific,"International Security38,Spring2014,pp.115-149.
[16] Jacques,When China Rules the World,p.12.
[17] David C.Kang,"Hierarchy in Asian international relations:1300-1900,"Asian Security,1/1,2005,pp.53-79.See also Stefan Halper,The Beijing Consensus:How China's Authoritarian Model Will Dominate the Twenty-First Century(New York:Basic Books,2010).
[18] John Ikenberry,"The rise of China and the future of the West,"Foreign Affairs87/1,January/February2008,pp.23-38.
[19] Robert Kagan,"What China knows that we don't:The case for a new strategy of containment,"The Weekly Standard,January20,1997.Robert Kaplan,Asia's Cauldron:The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific(New York:Random House,2014).
[20] Steinberg and O'Hanlon,Strategic Reassurance and Resolve,p.20.
[21] For a detailed analysis,see Bill Emmott,Rivals:How the Power Struggle Between China,India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade(New York:Harcourt,2008).
[22] Yan Xuetong,"How China can defeat America,"New York Times,November21,2011.
[23] Fareed Zakaria,"Obama needs to lead with feeling,"Washington Post,May8,2014.
[24] Carla Norrlof and Simon Reich,"What would Kindleberger say:The US and China as world economic leaders and stabilizers,"unpublished paper,2014.
第五章 绝对衰落：美国会像罗马一样吗？
我们是罗马人吗？卡伦·墨菲以一本颇受欢迎的书的书名提出了这个问题，他的结论是“也许是吧”。[1]罗马没有屈服于另一个帝国的崛起。但正如我们前面所看到的，它遭受了社会、经济以及架构上的绝对衰落，以至于无法保护自己免受野蛮部落的入侵。一些分析家们认为，对外部使用武力的代价就是削弱内部的经济，从而因“帝国的过度扩张”导致绝对衰落。[2]迄今为止，这个理论与美国的历史并不般配，因为在过去几十年里，国防和外交事务的支出在GDP中所占的份额一直在下降。
尽管如此，美国的相对实力可能仍会衰落。不是因为“帝国的过度扩张”，而应归于国内原因。当人们对自己的文化和制度失去信心时，罗马就从内部开始腐烂了：精英们为争夺控制权相互争斗，腐败增加，经济未能增长。[3]美国会不会因为国内的文化冲突、体制崩溃和经济停滞而失去它对世界事件的影响力呢？如果经济失败，美国将失去它的硬实力和软实力，即使美国继续保持可观的军事、经济和软实力的资源，但它可能缺乏将这些资源转化为有效影响力的能力。
社会与文化
文化从来都不是静态的，批评家们常常对当前这一代的行径发出感叹。例如，当一些人指责日益增长的物质崇拜、性道德观念的改变和粗俗的流行文化，认为这些是绝对衰落的证据时，另一些人把性别和种族关系的显著变化视为进步。虽然美国有很多社会问题，但那些问题似乎都没有愈演愈烈之势。在犯罪、离婚率和少女怀孕等方面，甚至有所下降。虽然在同性婚姻和堕胎问题上存在着文化冲突，但民调显示整体上宽容度在增加。公民社会是强大的，调查显示每周上教堂的人群比率是37%，只比十年前略低。媒体具有强调坏消息的天然倾向（因为坏消息好卖），人们对国家发展趋势的反应是一个折中的现象。如果每个人都从媒体那儿“知道”发生在华盛顿的事情是一个烂摊子，而他们对此没有直接的体验，他们会根据常识告诉民意测试专家对国情的看法。由此产生的民意调查并没有令人信服的衰落证据。过去围绕着奴隶制、禁酒、麦卡锡主义和公民平权所展开的文化冲突比今天的任何一个问题都更为严重。只是人们常常替过去抹上金色的光芒，这就使自己很容易断言衰落。
哦豁，小伙伴们如果觉得52书库不错，记得收藏网址 https://www.52shuku.net/ 或推荐给朋友哦~拜托啦 (>.<)
传送门：排行榜单 | 找书指南 |