[1] Cullen Murphy,Are We Rome?The Fall of an Empire and the Fate of America(New York:Mariner Books,2007).
[2] Paul Kennedy,The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers:Economic Change and Military Conflict Among the Great Powers from1500to2000(New York:Random House,1987).
[3] Of course,there were many more causes of this complex phenomenon.See Ramsay MacMullen,Corruption and the Decline of Rome(New Haven:Yale University Press,1988).
[4] See Nicholas Kristof,"We're not No.1!We're not No.1!"New York Times,April3,2014.
[5] "The jobs machine,"The Economist,April13,2013.
[6] Klaus Schwab and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,The Global Competitiveness Report2013-14(Davos:World Economic Forum,2013).Niall Ferguson,"How America lost its way,"Wall Street Journal,June7,2013.
[7] Technically Recoverable Shale Oil and Shale Gas Resources:An Assessment of137Shale Formations in41Countries Outside the United States(Washington,DC:US Energy Information Agency,2013),p.3.
[8] 2014Global R&D Funding Forecast(Columbus:Batelle Memorial Institute,2014).
[9] US Patent Statistics Chart,Calendar Years1963-2013(Washington,DC:The United States Patent and Trademark Office).
[10] For a more optimistic view of American savings,see Richard N.Cooper,"Global imbalances:Globalization,demography,and sustainability,"Journal of Economic Perspectives22,Summer2008,p.95.
[11] Niall Ferguson,"An empire at risk,"Newsweek,December7,2009,p.28;and"A Greek crisis is coming to America,"Financial Times,February11,2010.See also,Francis Warnock,"How dangerous is US government debt?The risk of a sudden spike in US interest rates,"Council on Foreign Relations Report,June2010;available at:http://www.cfr.org/publication/22408/how_dangerous_is_us_government_debt.html.
[12] Institute of Higher Education of Shanghai Jiao Tong University,"Academic ranking of the world universities-2009";available at:http://www.arwu.org/ARWU2009.jsp.
[13] "Are higher and lower performing students making gains?"The Nation's Report Card(Washington,DC:National Center for Education Statistics,US Department of Education,2013);available at:http://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading_math_2013/#/gains-percentiles.
[14] Viktória Kis and Simon Field,Time for the US to Reskill?What the Survey of Adult Skills Says(Washington,DC:Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,2013),p.12.
[15] Sam Dillon,"Many nations passing US in education,expert says,"New York Times,March10,2010.
[16] "Gini in the bottle,"The Economist,November26,2013.
[17] Eduardo Porter,"A relentless widening of disparity in wealth,"New York Times,March12,2014;"Class in America:Mobility measured,The Economist,February1,2014;Lawrence Summers,"US inequality goes beyond dollars and cents,"Washington Post,June8,2014.
[18] Francis Fukuyama,"American power is waning because Washington won't stop quarreling,"The New Republic,March10,2014.
[19] Sarah Binder,"Polarized we govern?"Washington,DC,Brookings Center for Effective PublicManagement,May2014,p.18.
[20] Pew Research Center for the People and the Press,"Political polarization in the American public,"June12,2014.
[21] Henry Kissinger,"America at the apex,"The National Interest,Summer2001,p.15.
[22] Hart-Teeter Poll for the Council of Excellence in Government,reported in the Washington Post,March24,1997.See also Seymour Martin Lipset and William Schneider,The Confidence Gap(Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1987)and Jeffrey Jones,"Trust in Government Remains Low,"Gallup,September18,2008.
[23] Harris Poll,1966-2011,"Confidence in Congress and Supreme Court drops to lowest level in manyyears,"May18,2011.
[24] Joseph S.Nye,Philip Zelikow,and David King,eds,Why People Don't Trust Government(Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1996).
[25] Department of the Treasury,Update on Reducing the Federal Tax Gap and Improving Voluntary Compliance(Washington,DC:July8,2009)."Employment tax evasion",Criminal Investigation Management Information System(Washington,DC:Internal Revenue Service,October2013).
[26] The World Bank,Governance Matters2009:Worldwide Governance Indicators,1996-2008(Washington,DC:The World Bank,2009).
[27] Steven Holmes,"Defying forecasts,census response ends declining trend,"New York Times,September20,2000;Sam Roberts,"1in3Americans failed to return census forms,"New York Times,April17,2010.
[28] Robert Putnam,Bowling Alone:The Collapse and Revival of American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2000);see also Better Together:Restoring the American Community(New York:Simon&Schuster,2003).
[29] "What's wrong in Washington,"The Economist,February29,2010,p.11.
[30] David Frum,"Crashing the party,"Foreign Affairs93/5,September/October2014,p.46.
第六章 权力转移和全球化的复杂性
作为全球信息革命的结果，21世纪正发生着两个巨大的权力转移：国家之间从西向东的权力转移和从政府到非国家行为体的实力扩散。[1]
我在前面谈到的第一种转移——国家之间的权力转移——可能不会在未来的三十年里结束美国在全球均势的核心地位。
目前还不太清楚这种转移是否会摧毁前面提到的被阿米塔夫·阿查亚称为“美国的世界秩序”的国际体制，他的一家影院多个影厅的区域对话隐喻假设了一种架构，但却没有包括如何来提供和维护这样一种架构的细节。中国是否会加入并提供霸权稳定论者们所寻找的公共物品？毫无疑问，中国从世界贸易组织和国际货币基金组织这样的开放机构中受益匪浅，但中国的记录远不是尽善尽美的。像美国在20世纪两次世界大战中间的那段时期那样，只要有人在开车，中国就对搭便车的诱惑来者不拒。我们也不太可能会看到其他新兴大国所提供的全球公共物品。
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